Teachers – One of The Most Influential Forces on Earth

 Teachers – One of The Most Influential Forces on Earth
Teacher
I ran into one of my junior high teachers a couple of days ago.  His name is Tom Carson.  He taught social studies and history.  He also coached the boy’s 8th grade football and basketball teams.  As either teacher or coach, I spent at least part of nearly every school day with him for little more than 9 months but his influence on who I am and the man I’ve become is immeasurable.

How is it possible that someone with whom I’ve spent comparatively little time has such dramatic impact?  I think it has two primary components.  First, it is timing.  When you’re in 8th grade, you’ve officially entered the fantasy realm of TeenagerLand.  Time seems to crawl.  9 months in Teenager-Land is like 7 years in Grown-Up-Land.  You’ve embarked on a hormone driven bender where every single aspect of your existence has life and death implications and everything seems to take forever.

Second, (and this was a common trait among many of the teachers I encountered in my home town) he gave a shit about me as a person – not just a kid that needs to memorize historic dates and the preamble to the Constitution in order to advance to 9th grade.  Mr. Carson was invested in making sure I turned out okay as a good citizen – a good human being. 

In the fall of 1977, I had been voted 8th grade class president, which was really more a popularity contest than a testament to my budding leadership skills.  This was the culmination of my ascension to being part of the “in” crowd.  Let’s just say I let all that go to my head.  I got pretty cocky.  I was influenced by my peers rather than being influential of my peers.  At one point, in an effort to win some laughs at the expense of someone else, I made some derogatory comments about another kid in class.  I don’t even know if he heard what I said but my friends and I were all chuckling about it and one of my teachers, Mrs. Dixon, overheard it.  She brought it to Mr. Carson’s attention and they took me aside that afternoon to have a talk with me.  They were the 8th grade sponsors and kind of coordinated the activities of the class as a whole and the student elected leadership in particular.

In that talk Mr. Carson pointed out that not only was I being rude and disruptive in class – but that I was betraying a trust that others had placed with me as their class president.  They spoke about gifts of personality, intellect, and athletic skill and the responsibility that goes with those gifts.  They reminded me of the important role humility plays in our daily lives and leading by example.  They said they brought this to my attention because they cared about me and my future and wanted for me to succeed at whatever I set my mind to. 

Mortified doesn’t begin to describe how I felt after leaving that meeting.  I held my teachers in high esteem and to have disappointed them in this way was a devastating blow.  I took heed of their admonitions and advice.  I shared the experience with my mother and she agreed with what my teachers had said and done and also expressed her disappointment and hoped I had learned a valuable lesson.  Disappointment is far worse punishment than detention, being grounded, or even running laps.

High SchoolWhen I saw Tom recently, he and I stood and talked for 20 minutes catching each other up on 30 years of life.  He is retired from public schools and he and his wife (who was an elementary school teacher herself) travel the country teaching teachers how to be better educators (mostly on Indian Reservations in the western U.S.).  Before we parted, I made sure to thank him for his care, compassion, influence, and life lessons.  I told Tom how lucky I feel to know him, and what an awesome teacher he is.

So why the snippet of my own real-life John Hughes film?  First, if there’s someone in your life who has shaped the great person you’ve become – let him or her know about it.  Second, if you think about the way influence works, it is always about timing and caring.  In the grand scheme of things, the amount of time Tom Carson was active in my life is minute, yet his influence has been enormous.  The time you spend with your clients may seem like forever but from a larger scale it is relatively small.  Are you making the most out of that time?  Demonstrate your care for your clients, colleagues, and vendor/partners so that your influence will have a positive lifelong impact like Mr. Carson’s had on me.

 

High Park Fire Update in Northern Colorado – A Distraction

High Park Fire Update in Northern Colorado – A DistractionLittle House on the Poudre

Tonight marks the 7th day since we were evacuated from our Little House on the Poudre due to the High Park fire in Northern Colorado.  To call this a distraction is an understatement of phenomenal proportion.  We were able to leave our home with our dog, his toys and kennel, our portable electronics, some clothes, official documents, a few sentimental items, my fishing gear, and some power tools (we had much of this already gathered from an evacuation order 3 weeks prior).  

We knew the fire had been advancing quickly but it didn’t seem anyone knew just how fast.  By 10:30 Saturday night the fire had been devouring timber at a rate better than a mile an hour and was closing in on our section of the canyon.  Just before 11 p.m. our power flickered – then went out.  Several minutes later, our old-style phone rang* with a reverse 911 call notifying us that the fire was advancing rapidly in our area and that we should leave immediately.  In pitch blackness, we scrambled to find our flashlights, lit some candles, and set about loading our vehicles and preparing to leave.  In 30 minutes we left our little log home with the ominous glow of the fire just beyond the ridge of the canyon.Firefighter

Once we reached Ted’s Place (a local landmark just beyond the mouth of the canyon and just 7 miles from our house).  We parked there along with many other evacuees to look back at the foothills and watched that eerie glow of the fire increase in intensity until we saw it crest the 2nd ridge and engulf everything in flames that were likely 200 feet high.  I shot this video with my iPhone and is a composite of how the fire advanced in the span of just 15 minutes.  We knew our home was just below that inferno and watched silently as it continued to burn brightly.  We made phone calls to immediate family members to let them know we were okay, looked one last time back toward the canyon aglow with fire and drove into town not sure what we would find the next time we came back.

We have been trying to live our lives as normally as possible but amidst the regular email updates from the Sheriff’s department, live news reports, endless Facebook posts, and the texts and voicemails of concerned friends, family, and colleagues, the distractions mount to the point where normal productivity comes to a slow crawl.  Amazingly, my wife and I were able to put one of our listings under contract, negotiate an offer on a 2nd listing, and showed property to clients we’ve been working with for several weeks.  After all, as independent contractors, it’s not like we can take personal time and still expect to get paid.  But that’s not the only reason we have continued to work at our real estate practice every day.  Industry and busy-ness keeps worry and anxiety safely at arm’s length. 

For 6 days we didn’t know if our house was still standing or not.  Now, don’t get me wrong.  We love our place up the canyon but we are also super pragmatic and well-insured.  If it burns down – we’ll rebuild, no question (it has been kind of fun to think about how and what we’d rebuild).  If the place escapes relatively unscathed – we’ll move back in, no question.  The most taxing aspect of this whole process is dealing with uncertainty.  Is the house a pile of ashes?  Worse, is it still standing but so smoke-damaged as to be unlivable?   Is it just fine and as soon as power is restored and the fire around us extinguished we’ll just move back in?  I’ve tried desperately to set these questions aside and just ‘keep calm and carry on’ as the phrase goes.  Hot Shot Crew

Last night, a bedraggled and weary fire chief, still in his soot-stained yellow & green hot-shot garb, entered the evacuee briefing room to a standing ovation.  The physical and emotional toll of the last 6 days spoke volumes as he worked to maintain his composure to speak to the small crowd of evacuees from the district his department serves.  His job was to notify anxious inhabitants about the status of their homes.  The chief, Carl Solley, lives in the lower Poudre and many of the expectant faces in this crowd are his neighbors and friends.  All in all, 17 homes were destroyed by the fire in just our area alone – most of which were lost in the first hour and a half after the evacuation order.  As he went through the list of addresses identifying them as burned/not burned, one gentleman stood up with a look of complete vacancy and wandered out of the room.  His house had been completely destroyed. 

High Park FireAnother tiny, elderly widow named Yoko, who has lived in the canyon for the last 10 years (5 of them all alone), has a home in one of the most remote areas of the lower Poudre.  The chief (who called her out by name) informed her that, by sheer miracle, her house was untouched.  The chief even mentioned that it was too dangerous to send his crews to try and save it but by some fluke, the flames avoided it. 

On and on, structure by structure, each person learned the fate of their house.  At one point, choking back emotion, the chief talked about the efforts of his volunteer crew that risked their lives to save properties and lives in a fire that he said in 35 years of firefighting is the most aggressive and intense he has ever seen.  Following another standing ovation, the chief finished his report and my wife and I were relieved to learn that our house is still standing and was entirely spared by the brunt of the flames.  It will likely be days or even weeks before we may be allowed back in to survey our property and the destruction around us.  Yes, to call this disastrous fire a distraction is a tremendous understatement.

*old style phones run off the low-voltage electricity in the phone line itself, therefore when power goes out, you may still have phone service.  A good reason to have at least one phone in the house of this variety. 

Click here for a link to a news story talking about my brave neighbors who are volunteer firefighters in our area of the canyon.

FAQ X: Is a Home Warranty a Good Idea?

FAQ X:  Is a Home Warranty a Good Idea?

If you’ve been to a personal Warrantyelectronics or appliance store in the last several years, you’ve more than likely been asked at the cash register something like this, “Would you like to protect your purchase with a Genuine Best Buy Extended Warranty?”  For nearly everything, I say “No, thanks” but for a select few items, I’ll say “Yes, please.”  At the top of that list are “Pre-owned Homes” to steal a phrase from the auto industry.

Home warranties are not required in the state of Colorado.  They are completely optional and can be purchased by either the buyer or the seller or the broker may purchase one on behalf of a client.  Many sellers are happy to pay for a home warranty instead of agreeing to other costly repairs due to concerns brought to light in the inspection process.  Some warranties, if activated during the listing period, begin coverage the moment the house goes on the market and automatically transfers to the buyer upon closing.  Anything that goes wrong with a covered item (water heaters and furnaces are the most popular items), will be repaired or replaced as stipulated by the particular home warranty purchased, less a modest service call fee – sweet deal, right?  So, what’s the catch?

FurnaceThe catch is (as with all forms of insurance) statistics.  The home warranty company is betting that of all the home warranties they sell at say, $475 a pop, a small fraction of those policies will ever be called upon to perform.  Oh, $475, you say?  Absolutely not – that’s a lot of money.  Yes.  It is.  You know what else is a lot of money?  Answer:  the purchase price of your home.  Even on the modest side of things in Northern Colorado an average home sells for well over $200,000.  The home warranty makes up less than two-tenths of one percent of the purchase price.  But what does it really buy you?  Peace of mind.  Peace of mind, that if in the middle of winter (yes, it can get a bit chilly here in January), your furnace goes out – you make one phone call and the service tech comes out to assess the situation and if it falls under the warranty, they put in a new furnace.  That’s peace of mind.

We’ve purchased several properties Plumber's Helperover the years and with each purchase we had inspections and appraisals completed.  We scoured the Seller’s property disclosure for hints of unseen potential problems. In the end, you’re buying something that someone else has lived in and enjoyed, remodeled, painted, abused,wall-papered, and who knows what else.  For each one of these homes we purchased a home warranty for at least the first year we lived in the place – just for the peace of mind.  We’ve personally seen our home warranties cover the replacement of a dishwasher, hot water heater, and partial payment of a collapsed clay sewer pipe.  None of those items were covered by a standard home owner’s insurance policy even with high deductibles.  The home warranty covered either the entire cost or a pro-rated amount that saved us literally thousands of dollars.

FAQ VIII: What Do You Mean the House is Already Under Contract?

FAQ VIII:  What Do You Mean the House is Already Under Contract?Smiley Sold

 Oh, if I had a hundred dollars for every time I’ve heard this question – from clients AND REALTORS!  

 Let me set the stage:  You are a buyer.  You have searches running at every web-site that lets you set up automatic notifications of new listing in a given price range and geographic region.  You’ve had your agent scouring the neighborhood for any signs that someone is getting ready to move.  You’ve even had your agent go door-to-door telling residents he has a buyer DYING to get into a house in this neighborhood and are you perhaps interested in selling – but nothing has panned out.  Then, mid-morning you get the email notification straight from your favorite real estate web-site that the house you’ve been dreaming about has just come on the market!  You text, email, and voice dial your agent to let him know THIS IS THE ONE!  The agent calls to set up a showing and the receptionist informs him the house is already under contract.  What-the..WHAT?

 Two things have likely happened.  First:  the site where you saw the house isn’t updated regularly and the house has actually been on the market much longer than you might suspect.  One of the biggest challenges with listing syndicators is getting them to pull down or in some way identify listings that are under contract or that have already sold.  The second part of that wish is that the syndicators should update their data with as much frequency as the multiple listing services (MLS) provide.  Our MLS, for example, updates listing data every 15 minutes but it may be 24 hours or more before the syndicators download updates – and even then, the updates may only be incremental in that they don’t update existing listing statuses, they simply download the data that has new listings.  It may be once a week or once a month that changes to listing statuses are updated, if at all.

What WhisperSecond:  This listing was being privately marketed as a “pocket listing” prior to being entered into the general market.  A strategy in some brokerage offices is the idea of a Whisper Campaign.  This is a marketing program formulated to put fresh new listings in front of a select group of brokers (usually from the same brokerage) to give them first shot at bringing a buyer to the listing.  Sellers are enticed to agree to this “soft opening” with promises of getting the home sold faster and with less hassle than putting it on the broader, open market. 

The way it works is the listing agent takes the listing agreement and inserts language that says “Seller instructs the listing firm to not publicly market the listing for XX number of days following the execution of this contract.”  However, the listing firm may market this property internally during the same time period.  My beef with this approach is that it creates a false expectation that the seller’s property is being exposed to a truly competitive environment.  Without providing all the brokers in a given market equal access to a listing, the seller may miss out on competing offers that can often drive the purchase price over the list price.  This is usually a good thing for the seller.Rolled Hundreds

 Why would a brokerage do this?  The short answer is MONEY.  If the brokerage has an agent on the list side and an agent on the buy side – that’s two commissions for the brokerage as opposed to having just the list side.  The buy-side commission goes to a different agent outside the brokerage.  If you’re a seller and a brokerage wants to limit the initial exposure of your home to the market – does that seem like it is in your BEST INTEREST?  Again, this brings up the value of agency, advocacy, and different forms of representation.  Take a look at my colleague Dick Greenberg’s post on this topic by clicking here.

 The lesson here is that if you’re tracking new properties on any web-site, be sure to look for the kinds of updates the site is providing.  Does it identify properties that are “Under Contract”?  Does it identify properties that are “Sold”?   Does it state how often the data is refreshed and updated?  At the very least, have a broker in your area check on the properties you’re following as they will likely have the most current and accurate information on any property (publicly) available for sale.

 

FAQ IX: Will You Tell Me if This House is Haunted?

FAQ IX:  Will You Tell Me if This House is Haunted?Haunted House

 This may not qualify as a frequently asked question but it does come up from time to time.  As a Buyer’s Agent (and I do mean acting in a full agency/fiduciary capacity), I am obligated to share with you any and all information that is pertinent to the transaction that I actually know (which, to a certain degree, minimizes my obligation to investigate, research, or disclose non-material facts).  In Colorado, Sellers are not obligated to disclose facts considered to be non-material or “psychologically stigmatizing”.  Among these are whether or not the property was the site of a homicide, felony, or suicide; whether or not a previous resident was HIV positive or had AIDS, and whether or not the house is reported to be haunted.Ghost Walker

 

Wait, WHAT?  That’s right, if the Seller believes the house to be haunted, the Seller is not obligated to disclose it.  If the Seller tells their listing agent they believe the house to be haunted, technically, the listing agent must not disclose that to anyone.  But what if I, as the Buyer’s Agent, have heard rumors that the house is haunted?  You can rest assured that I will mention it to you.  The reality is, if it is widely (or even narrowly) known that the house you’re thinking about buying is reportedly inhabited by spectral beings – you’ll find out sooner or later.  Therefore, in good conscience, I wouldn’t withhold that information if I had actual knowledge of it.  That being said, if haunted houses are a concern, I probably won’t go door-to-door canvassing the neighborhood as a ghost-hunter.  It would likely be more fun for you to do that on your own, anyway!

 

FAQ VII: Can I Get a Better Deal if I Go Direct to the Listing Broker?

FAQ VII: Can I Get a Better Deal if I Go Direct to the Listing Broker?

House Money

 Short answer:  Maybe

 Long answer:  Maybe Not.  Here’s why:  A Seller hires a broker to market her home.  They pre-agree on what that marketing/brokerage fee will be.  Together, the seller and the broker determine a list price for the home based on current market values.  Let’s say that the house will go on the market at $200,000.  For the sake of doing easy math, let’s say the Seller negotiated a marketing/brokerage fee with the listing broker of 6%*.  In our market, it is customary for the co-op broker (i.e. the broker who brings the buyer) to receive 3% of the brokerage fee.  That leaves 3% for the listing broker.  The Seller gets a representative.  The buyer gets a representative.  Everyone is happy, right?

 But what happens when the buyer goes straight to the Listing broker?  Using the same formula as set forth above, it seems that (absent the co-op broker) the buyer could theoretically save 3% on the purchase of the home, right?  Well, no, not necessarily.  In all likelihood, if the listing broker is going to double-side the deal, the broker may or may not offer a concession on the marketing/brokerage fee.  In my experience, if a concession is made it is common for that concession to be not more than 1%.  After all, the broker will be representing both sides of the deal and will be tracking all dates and maintaining communication on both sides and shuffling documentation back and forth for the Seller and the buyer.  The broker isn’t going to just do both sides of the job for free, right?

 

Here’s my point.  If I’m a buyer and I am going to go straight to the Listing Broker solely for the reason of saving money (in this example) we are talking about a savings of less than $2,000 based on the above scenario.  On top of that, as the newcomer to the relationship triad of Broker-Seller-Buyer, as the Buyer, I am the House Bank Womannewcomer and likely the odd man out.  I’ve made it clear that my negotiation position is price-based and depending on my walk-away power, I’ll probably settle for a price higher than what a professional negotiator might achieve on my behalf because I won’t have access to a market analysis done on my behalf demonstrating where this property stands in relation to the market as a whole.  In my humble opinion, if I were a buyer, I’d look at how that $2,000 “savings” impacts my long-term bottom line.  On a loan amount of $193,000 versus $191,000, at an interest rate of 4%, the difference in a monthly principle and interest payment is just ten dollars a month.  For that difference, I think it is well worth it to search out a buyer’s representative with a solid reputation, strong negotiation skills, and expert knowledge of the market.  Coupled with impeccable professionalism, and a relationship borne of advocacy you may very well save far more than just $10/month.

 

*Disclaimer:  This fee is individually negotiable on a property-by-property basis between the Seller and the Listing Firm.  The figure stated above is for demonstration purposes only and in no way reflects a standardized commission rate.

 

FAQ VI: Why Isn’t There a Penalty When the Lender Can’t Deliver?

FAQ VI:  Why Isn’t There a Penalty When the Lender Can’t Deliver?

At any given moment across this country, hundreds and Lenderthousands of potential home owners are anxiously awaiting word from their Lender that the underwriting gods have given their final blessing and the wiring instructions have been sent and the money is on its way and the closing for the home of their dreams can be finalized.  But what happens when the Lender doesn’t deliver?  In Colorado, the Lender isn’t party to the contract and any liability for not closing on time is borne by the Buyer.  With earnest monies typically 1% of the purchase price, there are literally thousands of dollars at stake if the Buyer can’t complete the transaction.

For example:  Let’s say you’re buying a house for $300,000.  You have likely put down $3,000 in earnest money.  This earnest money is refundable based on certain contingencies built in to the contract.  The most common contingency is the inspection.  If the house doesn’t check out to the Buyers sole and subjective satisfaction, the Buyer can terminate the contract and is entitled to a full refund of the earnest money.  The second most common contingency is the appraisal.  If the house doesn’t appraise for the purchase price of the home, the Buyer is not obligated to go through with the transaction and earnest money should be refunded.  A third type of contingency is what’s called “Loan Conditions”.  This contingency is for the exclusive benefit of the Buyer in that if the Buyer cannot secure satisfactory financing to purchase the home by the Loan Conditions deadline, then the Buyer may give notice to the Seller and terminate the contract and receive a full refund of the earnest money. 

Timepiece and Cash rollBut here’s the catch on Loan Conditions:  The loan conditions deadline is invariably 10 days to 2 weeks out from closing.  It usually occurs after the appraisal deadline and is most often the last contingency in the string of dates and deadlines in a typical contract.  Rarely will a bank provide unconditional guarantees of funding that far in advance of a closing.  After all, the bank won’t lend on a home if the Buyer becomes unemployed prior to closing.  The Lender won’t lend on a home when a Buyer’s debt to income ratio changes dramatically prior to closing (never make any major credit purchases while under contract – especially new cars!).  Therefore, the loan conditions deadline is really the deadline for the Buyer to determine if they’re willing to move forward in good faith that their Lender will perform as outlined in the loan application and good faith estimate.  Seems like a worthwhile risk, right? 

But what if, through no fault of your own, the Lender can’t get the funding done by the agreed upon closing date?  Colorado is a table funding state which means all ownership and all financial transfers occur on the day of closing – not some nebulous escrow date in the next couple of weeks (as is the case in California).  If the Buyer can’t perform on that closing date, the Buyer is deemed in default on the contract and subject to a loss of any earnest money placed in trust by the earnest money holder (the brokerage or title company).  The contract is between the Buyer and Seller – the Lender has no obligation to perform.  I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen all parties at the closing table and the Lender has been delayed in providing funds sufficient to close.  In most cases, it is in the Seller’s best interest to agree to extend the closing date.  However, in an accelerating market like we’re seeing in Colorado’s mid-tier price points, the Seller may simply decline to extend the closing date, keep the Buyers earnest money and put the house back on the market and accept a new offer (perhaps for even more money) the next day.Cash in hand

Surely the Buyer has some recourse against the bank for failure to perform, right?  Don’t hold your breath.  They’ve got the money- they make the rules.  Personally, I think there should be some way for a Buyer to seek compensation from a Lender that doesn’t perform – but that’s for a court of law to decide.  In the meantime, if you’re thinking about buying a home and are shopping Lenders for the best rates – don’t forget to ask them what their on-time arrival percentage is.  If you want to protect your earnest money, you’d better hope it is way better than the airlines’!

 

FAQ V: Why do I need a broker when the builder has its own sales team?

FAQ V:  Why do I need a broker when the builder has its own sales team?

You are interested in buying a home – House under constructionbut not just any home.  You want to buy THE home; your dream home, as the phrase goes.  You’ve been doing research on line until your retinas detach.  You’ve dreamed about the features you’d like to have in your perfect home.  You’ve got numerous Pinterest boards with bathrooms, dens, libraries, home offices, patios, landscaping, garages, master bedrooms, and dining areas.  You’ve likely visited numerous open houses and model homes in different subdivisions.  When asked if you’re working with anyone you state “oh, I’m just looking for decorating and design ideas.”  These activities have been going on so long your spouse and kids think you’ve taken a part time job as a professional real estate researcher.

 

Now, the time has come.  Your investigations are complete and you’re ready to pull the trigger and make an offer.  A friend (a really, really good and smart friend) suggests you contact a real estate broker to help you.  You think to yourself “But I already know what I want and there are plenty of sales people willing to help me at any of the housing developments – won’t that work just as well?”  In short, the answer is no, not really.

 

Builder Blue PrintHere’s the deal.  A builder is a seller.  The builder’s sales team works for the builder, not for you.  Sure it is super easy to waltz in to the sales center, pick out the floor plan, the cabinets, the flooring, the paint colors, etc, etc.  The builder even has its own contract.  Each of these things is designed to make the product look more enticing and improve the builder’s profit margin.  There’s nothing wrong with that.  That’s what business and investing is all about, right – making a profit?

 

But who is looking out for you, the buyer?  Who can you rely on who is familiar with the home buying process?  Who can you rely on who has read and is familiar with numerous contracts?  Who can you rely on who is well-versed in negotiating strategies so that you get everything you want at a reasonable price and will hold up to the bright light of day all of the fine print the builder includes in its contract to protect itself?  In sum, that person is a real estate broker working as your agent.  For a discussion of the value and definition of an agent, please take a look at my colleague, Dick Greenberg’s post on this subject:  Are You Working for Me?

 

Now, this may sound like I’m trying to bash builders and House Framing Trussesthat they are all out to take advantage of every buyer that stumbles into their project.  Not so.  Builders must establish and nurture solid reputations in the communities they serve.  Otherwise, word gets out and fewer people will buy what they have to offer.  However, builders are biased to their own interests.  Who isn’t?  For this reason, it is critical that you have someone in your corner who is biased to your interests; who will stand with you and provide the chutzpah to hold the builder accountable to their agreements; to ensure you’re paying no more than market price for what you’re buying.  In essence, a broker is there to help you attain your goal while helping to improve your own potential profit margin.

 

FAQ IV: Why is the Zestimate So Much Different Than The Asking Price?

FAQ IV:  Why is the Zillow Zestimate So Much Different Than The Asking Price?Alchemist

As alchemists struggled to find ways of turning lead into gold, real estate professionals and the industries that support them have tried to find an automated way to determine property value.  The biggest challenge to that end is that in many markets, no two homes are exactly the same.  There are so many variables to consider that even the most sophisticated of algorithms, pulling information from the most comprehensive databases can only approximate the market value of any given property.  The question remains, how close can these auto-generated values get?

More and more consumers are relying on sites like Zillow and Trulia for their personal research on real estate and properties in their area.  Zillow in particular was one of the first listing syndicators to provide automated opinions of value called “Zestimates”.  Originally, these Zestimates were based solely on tax assessment values provided in the public record.  Since most tax assessments are notoriously inaccurate with regard to actual market value, Zillow’s original Zestimates were off the mark both high and low by a large margin (15% or more of the eventual actual sales price).

Data MiningBut here’s the thing about how networks and data mining work.  Over time, Zillow has amassed a tremendous amount of sales data as well as continued access to the public record.  Like a baby whose initial arm and leg movements are simply random wavings and kickings which progressively become more refined movements allowing the child to perform coordinated actions like rolling over, then crawling, then the familiar staggering of early toddler-hood.  It appears Zillow has reached its own toddler-hood but it is still far from the Algorithmaccuracy that a licensed real estate broker (human being) can provide.

Have you seen this?  At the very bottom of the Zillow web-site is a clickable link called “About Zestimates”.  When you click on that link you’ll be taken to what amounts to a methodology and accuracy explanation of the Zillow Zestimate process.  If you click on the “States and Counties” section you can review Zillow’s Zestimate performance as compared to actual sales data for the same properties.  In Larimer County, for example, only 43% of the Zestimates came within 5% of the actual sales price. That means 57% of the homes Zestimated had a greater than 5% margin of error.  Consider this:  The average price of a home in Fort Collins is in the $230,000 price range.  If that’s the range you’re looking in, even with a 5% swing, the Zestimate you receive could be between $218,500 and $241,500.  That’s a total swing of $23,000.  That’s a huge margin when you’re trying to figure how much house you can actually buy (or sell, for that matter).

Broker Price OpinionThis is where using a professional, licensed real estate broker is critical.  These individuals have access to all the current data as well as pools of experience to get you a much narrower margin of error on the value of any given home.  Determining value is numbers based, yes.  However, there is an artistry to viewing the data with an experienced eye that takes into account information not available to the algorithms like paint colors, interior finishes, nearby schools, etc. 

The next time you’re cruising around Zillow, drop to the very bottom of the page and take a look at the accuracy table for your area.  Then call your local real estate broker and ask them for their own accuracy table of recommended list price to actual sales price data.  I’ll bet it’s better than Zillow’s by quite a bit!!